Showing posts with label bottom. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bottom. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Real Estate Outlook: Indicators of Recovery

You may not be quite ready to accept the idea that housing on a national basis has moved beyond bottoming out and is now in slow recovery mode.

But think about this: Even if you're bearish on the market, you've got to notice that some extraordinarily positive signs are popping up that point to recovery.

New mortgage applications last week for home purchases and refinancings were up 77 percent from the same week in April 2008, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. That's a statistic that's hard to ignore!

Mortgage rates continue to average well below 5 percent -- 4.7 percent last week on average for 30-year fixed-rate loans and 4.5 percent for 15 year loans. Rates like these are a major factor pushing applications way up, no question, but sharply lower housing prices in many markets are an important part of the equation as well.

Nearly 600,000 homebuyers have already claimed either the $7,500 tax credit from last year, or the $8,000 credit for this year, according to IRS data cited by the National Association of Home Builders.
Many of these buyers are true first timers, but plenty of others are people who are now jumping back into real estate after not owning for a few years, drawn in by today's much more affordable prices and financing.

The rebound underway in mortgages is even creating a mini hiring boom! The Bank of America has just announced that it will be adding 5,000 new positions around the country -- just to deal with its red hot mortgage business, which closed nearly 400,000 new loans during the first quarter. Other big lenders are hiring loan officers and processors again too.

Hard-hit local housing markets continue to roar back with sales gains. On Florida's west coast, in the Sarasota and Bradenton areas, sales were up 28 percent in March over last year, and pending sales -- pointing to more purchases in the pipeline but not yet closed -- were up 27 percent.

Inventories of unsold houses in the Sarasota-Bradenton area are down 31 percent, to the lowest level since December 2005, according to a report from Trendgrafix.

Nationally, house prices have begun moving up again after many months of declines. According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency, prices rose by seven tenths of a percent on average last month - after falling by six and a half percent during the previous 12 months.

By Kenneth Harney, Published: April 28, 2009, http://realtytimes.com/rtpages/20090428_realestateoutlook.htm

Beach to Bay Real Estate Center is a full service real estate brokerage servicing buyers, sellers and renters at the Delaware beach areas. We handle all forms of real estate, including residential, commercial, and lots and land, in addition to bank owned, short sales and auctioned properties and representation; mortgage needs including refinances, new home purchases, second homes, first time homebuyer programs and reverse mortgages; maintain professional relationships with local settlement attorneys, insurance companies, contractors, and inspection companies; and are affiliated with a preservation and restoration company. Beach to Bay services all of Sussex County, and southern Kent County, with a strong focus on the beach resort areas of Rehoboth Beach (19971), Lewes (19958), Bethany Beach (19930), Dewey Beach (19971), Milton (19968), Millsboro (19966) and more.

Home Prices Approaching a Bottom in Period Ahead

While the Federal Housing Finance Agency reported that home prices in February registered their first consecutive monthly gain in two years, FHFA Chief Economist Patrick Lawler cautioned it is far too early to conclude that home values have bottomed out.

“There may be issues associated with the foreclosure moratorium. In January and February there were a lot fewer foreclosures than in previous months,” Lawler said while discussing current home price trends in a panel discussion at last week’s NAHB Construction Forecast Conference.

He also added that the FHFA calculated more transactions in areas across the nation where home prices are doing better. “That helped push up prices some,” he said.

From the fourth quarter of 2007 through the fourth quarter of 2008, FHFA reported that home prices fell 8% nationally, Lawler said, while the
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index reported a drop of 18%.

Part of the discrepancy, Lawler said, is that the FHFA uses the prices of homes backed by mortgages or sold by
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and that subprime, jumbo and FHA mortgages are not included in the agency’s home price index. Another difference is that the FHFA encompasses rural areas while the S&P/Case-Shiller home price data are concentrated on major metropolitan markets.
Pointing out that distressed sales accounted for 50% of the total in California during the last quarter of 2008, Lawler added, “we have fewer distressed sales in our index than Case-Shiller.”

A study last year by the
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) to ascertain the total number of home-price boom-and-bust markets found that of 104 markets that experienced a “boom” in 2006, just three were still considered boom markets in 2008 and only one, Detroit, was listed as a “bust.”
The analysis defined a boom market as one that had experienced a real price gain of 30% or more in three years. A market was considered a bust if had posted a nominal price decline of at least 15% in five years.

“The data show that home prices are essentially where they were in 2003,” said Richard Brown, chief economist of the FDIC.

Citing the S&P Case-Shiller Future Prices Index, Brown said that futures prices, which have lagged actual home price declines, suggest a floor in U.S. home prices by early 2010.

To help shore up home prices, Brown said a broader stabilization of the financial system — including policies to provide liquidity to mortgage markets and bolster the capital of banks — is necessary to provide more mortgage credit and to get financial institutions to start lending again. He also said that the number of foreclosures must be whittled down “to arrest some of the downward pressure on home prices.”

Nation's Building News, Photos by Morris Semiatin,
http://www.nbnnews.com/NBN/issues/2009-04-27/Economics+&+Finance/3.html
Beach to Bay Real Estate Center is a full service real estate brokerage servicing buyers, sellers and renters at the Delaware beach areas. We handle all forms of real estate, including residential, commercial, and lots and land, in addition to bank owned, short sales and auctioned properties and representation; mortgage needs including refinances, new home purchases, second homes, first time homebuyer programs and reverse mortgages; maintain professional relationships with local settlement attorneys, insurance companies, contractors, and inspection companies; and are affiliated with a preservation and restoration company. Beach to Bay services all of Sussex County, and southern Kent County, with a strong focus on the beach resort areas of Rehoboth Beach (19971), Lewes (19958), Bethany Beach (19930), Dewey Beach (19971), Milton (19968), Millsboro (19966) and more.